Deconstructing the Harris-Trump Debate

How Did it Go? Will it Make a Difference?

Like the millions (..er… thousands) of highly online, politics-addicted folks, who put their elections signs on their front lawns a month ago, I was stationed in front of CNN last night at 9:00. With a glass of wine and two devices logged onto X, I shared quips with a handful of pals who are still on X.

The most obvious laughs of the night were watching Harris poke Trump. His triggers are well-known. And she was there with a book of matches setting off little explosions.

Big rallies! Boom!

Foreign leaders laughing at you! Boom!

Lost the 2000 election! Boom!

Sometimes he didn’t need a Harris match. Sometimes he just stepped into cliche traps all on his own. Eating dogs in Springfield! Black jobs!

Last night, Chris Christie said, “She was exquisitely well-prepared, she laid traps, and he chased every rabbit down every hole." "Whoever prepared Donald Trump should be fired. He was not good tonight at all."

To be honest, I expected Trump to do his crazy stuff, so I was more focused on Harris.

Harris did what she had to do tonight. She was far, far, far better than Biden, which justified ousting him. She remained cool, while Trump ranted. She looked presidential.

She needs better answers on inflation, immigration, and Afghanistan. The grocery, tuition, and car repair bills are killing us this year. My oldest guy and his friends are struggling to find decent jobs. I want better answers to those problems.

Will this debate make a difference? Will this debate, plus the all-important Taylor Swift endorsement, push Harris over the finish line?

The political science literature says that debates don’t matter. Yes, the last debate resulted in a historical last minute swap of Democratic candidates, but that was highly unusual. Most debate watchers are select group of crazies (me!) who have already made up their minds. Besides November is far away. The debate will probably strengthen the base, probably of both sides, rather than sway the undecideds. It will be a wash.

What are other people saying?

Nate Silver said that Harris won, but sometimes seemed canned. He’s been predicting that Trump will win with a slight lead. Not sure if the debate will change those numbers.

Yascha Monk says that Harris has to move to the center.

Paul Musgrove discusses Trump’s shadow and incoherence.

Drezner writes, “It revealed a cold-blooded prosecutor who knows how to play Donald Trumplike a fiddle.”

What did you think?