Eggs, Bread, Burgers, and Gas

Why Trump Won

It was a close race, as all the pollsters predicted, but Trump won.

What we know from exit polls:

• He made in-roads in his base, turning red districts into deep red districts.

• He won with Latino men, white women, and white men.

• He improved his percentages with Latino women, Black men and Black women.

• He reduced the education gap.

• He won no-college degree voters, and even improved his performance with college degree voters, especially men.

• He improved his performance with young voters, and lost some ground with seniors.

• He owns the rural vote. He improved his percentile of independents and moderates.

• In my state of New Jersey, Harris only won by 5 percent. That’s huge. Trump got some key counties.

• Even though people support abortion, they cared about the economy more.

Trump won across a broad section of the country. Your neighbors voted for Trump. Your cousins voted for Trump. You might have voted for Trump.

Trump won even though he fueled the fire on January 6th, admires fascists like Viktor Orban, created abortion law chaos in the country, and more. But voters prioritized other issues. Them’s the facts. If we want to win elections, we have to listen to the voters.

Voters cared about the economy for themselves and their children. They were turned off by the college protests and DEI measures. They were worried about crime and immigration. They wanted a leader that didn’t discount the needs of men. They wanted to pick a leader with a clear message. Those are legitimate concerns.

Why He Won

Check out this ad by Trump. He hit all the big issues with a narrator with a deep baritone voice: Girls sports. DEI. Immigration. Crime. College Protests. Free Speech. Cancel Culture.

The Economy

Inflation is real. My family felt it. We’ve cut back on burgers/beers, because the bill for a family of four is more than $150. I write a six-day menu, so I won’t get stuck and have to order some last minute Chinese food. We got hit hard this year with car repairs, a broken furnace, college tuition, and an increase in local taxes. I’ve got two twenty-somethings in my house.

Trump took this issue. Harris was stuck in a weak position on this. She said she was middle class a lot, but didn’t say how she would improve things. If she went harder on the economy, it would have meant trashing Biden. And Democrats pointed to the positive economic headlines without thinking about people’s everyday experiences.

On X, Annie Lowery wrote:

“Since I've been a reporter, so since the GWB administration, it's been clear that headline economy statistics have become less and less of a clear guide in terms of telling you what average families are feeling that headline economy statistics have become less and less of a clear guide in terms of telling you what average families are feeling. The cost of living crisis, extraordinary price of healthcare, and inequality contribute to that. Hard to understand pressures households are enduring and the choices they are making by just looking at what they earn and spend on.”

Young voters can’t buy homes. They aren’t finding good jobs. They’re living with the parents. All this is much worse for the dudes.

The Biden Issue

Politico writes, “she never sufficiently buried Biden’s ghost, severely hamstringing her ability to sell voters on the idea that hers was the turn-the-page candidacy.”

Biden should have dropped out earlier and let Harris go through the primary. She would have been stronger for it. Or we might have ended up with a stronger candidate.

Trans and Gender-Ambiguous People in Women’s Sports

I blogged about this issue of athletes with complicated biological status in women’s sports back in 2009. I was against it back then and still am. I was a student-athlete and now I’m an old runner, who does weekend 5K races. We can’t compete with genetic men.

And a lot of people agree. Trump capitalized on the backlash against that Algerian boxer in the Olympics this summer.

College Protests

The college protests were unpopular with the public. And with young people, who are flocking to Southern Colleges.

Weak Message

Harris never articulated a clear message and didn’t have a powerful supporter. Like him or hate him, Elon Musk helped Trump. In contrast, the Obamas screwed up.

The Worries

I can’t write anymore now, because I have to finish a PowerPoint presentation. I’m giving a presentation to 120 parents tonight, which will explain how to apply for disability services for their autistic 18-year olds. I can’t help think about what’s going to happen to those families in a Trump administration. Will those benefits still exist next year? What will Trump do for families like ours?

I’ll be back tomorrow.