The Inevitability of the Next Trump Presidency

Why and What To Do?

History unfolds not through neat, well-planned, highly funded events and campaigns orchestrated by the smartest people in the nation. It comes to us on butterfly wings, through overlooked people and groups — a Serbian nationalist group, a failed art student, and a bullied, skinny kid in rural Pennsylvania—who knock over the dominos of change.

After spending a lovely Saturday afternoon visiting friends in Eastern Pennsylvania, I checked my phone on the ride back to New Jersey. The attempted assassination attempt was all over X. “It’s over,” I said to Steve. “The election is over.”

An assassination attempt on an American presidential candidate is horrific. To his credit, Trump reacted maturely without heated rhetoric or calls for action. We certainly need to examine security protocols to ensure that our leaders are safe. But we should also mourn, because this one random act robbed us of healthy political debate and a competitive election. The next Trump presidency is inevitable.

Why Did This Happen?

As a former education writer, I’ve read enough coverage of school shootings to know the profile of a shooter— mentally unwell, few friends, marginalized, too much internet, access to firearms. Trump’s shooter, Thomas Crooks, is from the same cloth as the 413 school shooters that have wreaked havoc in American schools since Columbine.

He acted alone. He wasn’t in league with the government or outside nations. He was a sad, skinny, pathetic kid, who needed help. He was failed by his schools and community. End of story.

This was not a political act. This was a school shooting outside of a school.

The conspiracy theories on X are wild. Crazy folks are saying that this pathetic teenager was aided by government officials. Thank god, my friends are slowly returning to X, because we need more grown ups on that platform.

Republican leaders are blaming “divisive rhetoric” for this assassination attempt. By pointing out that Trump has fascist leanings and attempted to subvert the democratic election process, the media has created this problem, they say. (Trump was throwing out the “fascist” word, too.)

413 school shooters didn’t point their guns at their classmates because too many editors used the word “fascist” in their headlines, and neither did Crooks. Nobody better shutdown my ability to criticize political leaders. stifled. This attempt by Trump’s allies to shutdown political debate should be ignored.

The Canonization of Trump

Let’s give credit where credit is due. I’m no fan of Trump, but he handled this incident with grace and moderation. He is very lucky to be alive. After a near-death experience, it must be difficult to be statesmanlike.

But Trump didn’t really need to say anything. Aided by some excellent photojournalism, Trump is the new American saint. People are going to hang his pictures in their kitchens in Nebraska and wave Trump flags on every barn across the country.

Trump knows this and will amp up the religious rhetoric. In an interview shortly after the shooting, Trump said:

“The doctor at the hospital said he never saw anything like this, he called it a miracle.. I’m not supposed to be here, I’m supposed to be dead. I’m supposed to be dead.”

“By luck or by God, many people are saying it’s by God I’m still here,” he said.

Miracle. Saved from death. God. Chosen one. Expect more of that.

He is revamping his RNC speech. He’s no longer going to bother talking about Biden, who is now irrelevant to the campaign. Now, Trump wants to be seen as the beneficent uniter. A philosopher prince. A beneficent ruler.

From the Hill:

“The speech I was going to give on Thursday was going to be a humdinger,” Trump said in an interview with the Washington Examiner.

Had this not happened, this would’ve been one of the most incredible speeches,” aimed mostly at the policies of President Biden, he added, according to the newspaper. “Honestly, it’s going to be a whole different speech now.”

The former president also said the speech was initially going to excite his voter base but will now focus on how the attack on his life has altered the campaign.

“This is a chance to bring the whole country, even the whole world, together. The speech will be a lot different, a lot different than it would’ve been two days ago,” he said.

Was Trump Going to Win Anyway?

This has been a crazy couple of weeks for politics. Between Biden’s disastrous debate performance and this assignation attempt, people are tuned into politics in a major way. Along with Trump, CNN and Elon Musk are having a great July.

Even before July, things were not looking good for Biden out here in the suburbs. My suburban mom friends are ticked off. Here in NJ, nobody is worried about access to abortion, so that’s just not the issue that Democratic leaders would like. Instead, the moms are pissed off about perceived attacks on their kids.

The sole purpose of living in the suburbs is to get your kids on the escalator to college. That’s it. Without kids and that escalator, most of us would not be living here.

However, excellent suburban high schools are having a much harder time getting their students into the most elite colleges. There were never many seats at those colleges anyway, because administrators would rather sit on their billion dollar endowments than add one more seat in a classroom. Now, suburban valedictorians have to compete for seats at Harvard with international students, legacies, and diversity kids. So, the type of kid who was Harvard-bound twenty years ago, now has to apply to schools another rung or two down on the higher education ladder. The moms are pissed about that. Rightly or wrongly, they are blamed Biden.

They’re also unhappy about the highly publicized college protests. The moms just want their kids to get to class safely and not get expelled for joining in any nonsense. They worked really hard to get their kids to college and to set them up for success, and nothing better jeopardize that massive investment in resources.

I regularly talk to parents, who strategize about schools without protestors. Southern colleges are very popular right now. Again, parents blame campus unrest on the Democratic Party and Biden.

Suburban moms are also unhappy about the DEI movement, which they believe took their kids’ spots at Columbia and Yale and will later undermine their employment opportunities. They don’t like that their white boys have to feel bad for being white and male. Even progressive moms become mama bears when someone attacks their cubs.

College unrest and instability and DEI overreach has made Biden very unpopular out here in the burbs. Even before the debate, I wasn’t seeing any enthusiasm for him. Now, the Biden backlash is even greater with the moms whispering about Biden’s soiled drawers and proudly talking about their support for Trump. I didn’t see this four years ago.

By combining support from the suburban moms and rural voters, who resent urban privilege, Trump has generated a very strong coalition.

What’s To Be Done?

Biden’s not well and needs to be replaced on the ticket. There’s no doubt about that. Yet, even with a change, Trump’s election is inevitable. Last weekend was too powerful.

Damage control is the only option. Democrats must continue to check the president. We need to have a strong effort through November with good debates. We have push Trump back from the most extreme elements of the party.

At the end of the day, I think Trump wants to be liked. He wants to be remembered well in the history books. So, let’s nudge him to do the right thing.

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