What If...

Biden Dropped Out Last Year?

I’ve had a shit-cakes kind of week, so we’re going to play a game this morning. We’re going to play “What If…”

What if Biden decided not to seek a second term back in 2023?

What if Biden’s most trusted advisers sat him down and said, “Joe, you’re a great guy. Beau is watching you up in heaven and is damn proud of you. It’s time to retire. Go get some soft serve ice cream at Rehoboth, hang out with your grandkids, make some dancing TikTok videos. Let someone else do this crappy job. You want to be like Ruth Baden Ginsberg and stay too long? No, you don’t.”

Then we would have had a full primary. Who would have been there? Probably many of the folks who were there in 2020: Amy Klobochar, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg would definitely have been there. Maybe Cory Booker. I don’t think Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders would do it again. I think Klobochar would have won. Salads and combs for all!

I don’t think that Harris would have beaten the others in a primary race. She’s stumbling now for the same reasons that tanked her 2020 primary race — her positions are unclear, and she doesn’t connect with voters. Her recent media appearances have been adequate, but didn’t yield that one great moment that she could use in campaign ads or that would go viral on social media.

It’s hard to be in Obama’s shadow. Obama was, and still is, a masterful orator. He knows how to deliver a line and make it stick. Most mortals can’t do that. And I think everybody has been watching Harris and silently comparing her to Obama. Rightly or wrongly, she’s been defeated not by Trump, but by Obama’s legacy.

Amy Klobochar, a middle-aged, white woman from the Midwest, wouldn’t have that same pressure. When Klobochar talks, people think of Marge from Fargo, not Barack Obama. She’s also seasoned, experienced, and never said dumb stuff about defunding the police.

If Biden would have dropped out early, there would have been a primary, Klobochar would have won, and she would have beaten Trump.

Agree?

Alright, let’s change the rules up for a minute. Let’s go into the future. Here’s another question: What if… Trump wins?

This actually might happen. I think we’re in a margin of error race now, so it could go either way.

And let me just pause for a minute and say… UGH. It is still mind-blowing to me that Donald Trump — a huckster, a SideShow Bob, a mental lightweight — became president in 2020. It was an accident of history that even he never expected. And now, it might happen again, not as an accident, but as the result of conscious decisions made by millions of Americans, who are allowed to drive cars and operate heavy machinery.

What happens if this guy, who has befriended the world’s most evil characters, is elected? How much damage can he do in the next four years? Remember, he was distracted with COVID last time. What happens when he is expected to handle situations in the world’s hot spots? What happens to families like mine, who are juggling multiple jobs and caring for young men who had to spend some time in the hospital this week?

On Tuesday, my hairdresser and I discussed our escape plans should things go really off the rails in the world. Here, just 30 minutes from midtown Manhattan, we’re in deep shit if things go bad. Steve and I have a plan. We’ll load up the back of the Suburb with all the crap on the camping shelf in the basement and then head north to Canada. 15 minutes and we’re gone. Is it weird that people are thinking like this?

I do wonder how many people are voting for Trump, as a vote against “woke” politics. People don’t really like him, but they loathe and/or are terrified of the perception of the other side. At the same time, I do think a lot of people are voting for Harris, simply because they hate Trump. It’s an election of two unlikable candidates.

So, what if… Trump wins. What do you think will happen?

My guess? Trump loves winning, but is bored by details, bored by the job itself. At first, he’ll outsource most of the real work to Elon Musk and others. But then he’ll get bored by that, too. He’s an old guy, who looks likes he’s one Big Mac away from a heart attack. I don’t think he’ll last another four years.

If Trump is elected, I think that there’s very good odds that we’ll have a President Vance sooner than later. How will that play out? With Vance and Musk acting a team? Expect a lot of talk about population collapse and pro-natalism.

But Harris hasn’t lost yet. It really could go either way. I don’t have enough information about Harris to confidently say how things will pan out if she’s elected. Which is a problem. But I do think that she will be surrounded by smart people, who will guide her to make the right decisions. I don’t think I’ll be worried about escape plans to Canada if she’s elected.